How does Noah Fifita play against the 8th-best defense in the nation? Can Arizona’s defense, also ranked in the top 10, pressure BYU true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier? And does Brent Brennan get his first signature win at the helm of the Wildcats? Find answers to all that and more in this week’s Preview & Predictions ahead of Saturday’s showdown between Arizona and No. 18 BYU.
Offense:
After taking home Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week honors following his 376-yard, five-touchdown game, how will Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita respond? The Cougars defense is holding teams to under 240 yards per game this season, and has allowed a mere seven touchdowns on the season. Kalani Sitake’s squad has also forced nine turnovers this season, including seven interceptions. With inclement weather looming, Fifita’s accuracy and decision making will need to be on full display Saturday.
BYU will be without star linebacker Jack Kelly, who is listed as doubtful in the most recent injury report. Kelly is second on the team with 21 total tackles, and leads the Cougars with four sacks for a loss of 38 yards.
Fortunately for the Wildcats, the offensive line is in good shape. After left tackle Ty Buchanan and left guard Chubba Maae exited the game against Oklahoma State, neither were listed on this week’s injury report and are good to go. Arizona’s ground game was non-existent against the Cowboys, with the skill players rushing for just 71 yards on 22 carries after the injuries to Buchanan and Maae. With the offensive line in better shape this week, the Wildcats can be more dependent on the ground game with its stable of running backs, especially if rain starts to fall.
Through the air, Arizona’s physicality at receiver and tight end is something to watch against what Brent Brennan described as a “mature, consistent football team” in BYU. Tre Spivey is coming off the best game of his career, hauling in three receptions for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will be down to Sam Olson and Mercyhurst transfer Cam Barmore at tight end, after Keyan Burnett elected to redshirt, missing the remainder of the season.
Expect this game to be won in the trenches, with Arizona leaning on Ismail Mahdi, Kedrick Reescano, and Quincy Craig to carry the load, while keeping a potentially wet and slippery pigskin out of harms way.
Defense:
There’s a lot of talk about BYU’s eighth-ranked defense, but let’s not forget that Arizona boasts the No. 10 defense in college football. Against true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, that could present some troubles. Among FBS programs that Bachmeier has faced this season, Stanford, East Carolina, Colorado, and West Virginia’s defenses are ranked 119th, 48th, 107th, and 98th respectively. Danny Gonzales’ squad does a great job disguising looks, pressuring the quarterback, forcing turnovers, and flying to the football, making Saturday the first true test for the Cougars’ young signal caller.
One way or another, the defense will look different for the Wildcats on Saturday. Defensive end Tre Smith is out for the season after undergoing surgery on Thursday for an undisclosed injury, meaning it will likely be Alcorn State transfer Malachi Bailey mirroring Dominic Lolesio on the defensive line. Arizona could also lean on a linebacker-heavy 2-4-5 defensive scheme, utilizing the physicality and quickness of Riley Wilson and Chase Kennedy to apply even more pressure to Bachmeier.
Two players Danny Gonzales and the Wildcats’ defense needs to prepare for are running back LJ Martin and wide receiver Chase Roberts.
“I think the thing that makes him really the best guy that we’ve faced is the physicality that he plays with,” said Brent Brennan on LJ Martin.
Martin is averaging 6.4 yards per carry this season, amassing 490 yards and three touchdowns on 76 carries. He is an explosive-play threat every time he touches the ball, with runs of 40+ yards in three of BYU’s five games this season. Just as Arizona could lean on the run game, look for BYU to do the same, especially as Bachmeier navigates the Wildcats’ defense in the rain.
Bachmeier is also an effective runner himself, carrying the ball 49 times for 206 yards and five touchdowns this season. If he is struggling to get the Cougars’ passing attack started, look for him to settle himself down and find some early rhythm on the ground.
Arizona’s secondary will have its hands full with Chase Roberts when BYU elects to move the ball through the air. Roberts has hauled in 20 receptions for 395 yards and three touchdowns this season, all of which are team highs. With his 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame, Roberts is a big bodied receiver that can give opposing defenses fits with his physicality and hands.
Special Teams:
Arizona has seen some improvement in special teams since Aussie Isaac Lovison took over punting duties from Michael Salgado-Medina. Lovison is averaging 44.6 yards per punt, with four punts downed inside the 20 yard line, compared to an average of 41.7 yards per punt and just one kick inside the 20 for Salgado-Medina.
It will still be all eyes on Michael Salgado-Medina’s field goal kicking in this one though. Salgado-Medina has been automatic from kicks between 30-39 yards, but is just 9-14 on the season, and 3-8 on field goal attempts 40 yards or longer. Salgado-Medina had an up-and-down outing in the game against Oklahoma State, where he missed a 46-yard attempt, before connecting on a career-long 57-yard field goal in the second half. While now-Ravens’ kicker Tyler Loop left massive shoes to fill, Salgado-Medina’s inconsistent kicking through five games has Arizona fans with as many questions as they have answers.
Punt returns will also be something to watch on Saturday. Jeremiah Patterson is questionable on this week’s Big 12 injury report after missing the game against Oklahoma State. If he can’t go, it will once again be Luke Wysong fielding punts for the Wildcats. Wysong had an efficient game against the Cowboys, returning five punts for 47 yards, including a 23-yard return.
Final Score Prediction:
It may be gritty. It may be ugly. Shoot, it may be downright chaotic on Saturday night at Arizona Stadium. But, I think Brent Brennan gets his first signature win at the helm of the Wildcats. Noah Fifita will need to execute a perfectly called game by Seth Doege, as Arizona’s defense looks to shutdown the nation’s most dynamic freshman quarterback.
Brent Brennan said on Thursday Arizona will need to win the turnover battle, handle the weather, and “play with the required physicality” to match BYU’s physicality and maturity. If the Wildcats can do that, look for Arizona to hand BYU its first loss of the season and move to 5-1 with a final score of 24-21.