Preview & Predictions: Arizona at Houston

Everything’s bigger in Texas, right? If that’s the case, then the Wildcats are in for a Texas-sized win on Saturday after a emotional double-overtime loss to BYU at home. Check out this week’s Preview & Predictions ahead of Saturday morning’s showdown between Arizona and Houston.

Offense:

Red zone efficiency and winning the turnover battle will be the name of the game for Arizona in its first trip to Houston since both programs joined the Big 12. Officially in the stats, Arizona went 2-3 in the red zone against BYU, but the Wildcats punched into the end zone on just one of five total trips to the red zone. The UA settled for two field goals, including one in the first overtime period after a Kedrick Reescano touchdown was wiped off the board by a holding penalty, while Noah Fifita had a fourth down interception midway through the third quarter, and an incompletion on fourth down in the second overtime that ended the game.

The Wildcats should look to improve their red zone efficiency in two ways. The first is continue feeding running back Kedrick Reescano, who is finally healthy after dealing with a lower body injury earlier in the season. The Houston-area native rushed for 90 yards and touchdown on just 13 touches, averaging 6.9 yards per carry against last week’s Cougars. His size and ability to get north and south between the tackles make him a lethal threat if Arizona can get the ground game rolling.

The second is by getting wide receiver Tre Spivey more involved. Coming off of an 80-yard, two-touchdown performance against Oklahoma State, Spivey was targeted just two times and hauled in just one reception for 10 yards in the loss to BYU. His size, strength, and ability to fight through contact have made him one of Noah Fifita’s favorite red zone targets this season. Offensive coordinator Seth Doege acknowledged Spivey is not getting the ball enough, so look for him to have a few options dialed up for the big-bodied receiver when Arizona is inside the 20 yard line.

It’s the second week in a row that Arizona will face a top 25 rated defense. Houston is holding opponents to 306.5 yards and 17.5 points per game. Fortunately for the Wildcats, the Cougars are nowhere near as effective at turning offenses over, with just eight turnovers forced this season (compared to Arizona’s 13). If Noah Fifita keeps the ball out of harms way like Brent Brennan noted, Arizona has a chance to carve up the Cougars on Saturday.

Defense:

Houston has one of the Big 12’s most experienced quarterbacks in Conner Weigman, who spent the past three seasons at Texas A&M before becoming a Cougar this past offseason. Two elements of his game standout on paper and tape. One is how he protects the football, throwing just two interceptions all year. The second is his ability to run. Weigman has 145 yards and five touchdowns on the ground this season. Given how effective Bear Bachmeier was carrying the rock against Arizona last week, expect Houston to try to do the same on Saturday.

The Cougars will likely be without their number two wide receiver in Stephon Johnson, who has been doubtful on the Big 12 injury report since Wednesday. Johnson has 13 catches for 275 yards and two touchdowns this season. With Johnson likely not suiting up, look for Houston to throw even more targets in the direction of wide receiver Amare Thomas and tight end Tanner Koziol. If Arizona can limit Weigman on the ground and lock down his top two targets, Houston’s offense could become one dimensional very quickly.

Special Teams:

After a lot of scrutiny this season, Arizona’s special teams had its best game of the year against BYU. Michael Salgado-Medina connected on both field goal attempts, while Isaac Lovison continues to look more and more comfortable on the gridiron with each game. Nothing too fancy here, but if the Wildcats’ special teams does exactly what it did against BYU, it can only help, not hurt the final score.

Final Score Prediction:

After the heartbreaking loss to BYU and a feisty week of practice according to head coach Brent Brennan and offensive coordinator Seth Doege, I expect Arizona comes out on top in this one. The Wildcats will play energized, fast, physical, and violent, and make quick work of a Houston team that struggled to beat now 0-7 and head coach-less Oregon State in overtime earlier this season.

If Arizona cleans up its red zone woes, takes care of the football, and contains Houston signal caller Conner Weigman, look for the Wildcats to knock off the Cougars 31-17 and head into their second bye-week of the season sitting at 5-1 and .500 in Big 12 play.