Arizona has impressed through the first two weeks of the season, but as defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales said on Tuesday, the UA has “beaten two teams we should have beaten.” Arizona’s toughest test comes on Friday, when it hosts Big 12 foe Kansas State in a non-conference game on Retro Night. Ahead of the showdown between the Arizona Wildcats and Kansas State Wildcats, let’s take a look at this week’s Preview & Predictions.
Offense:
Fortunately for Brent Brennan, Seth Doege, and Wildcat fans, Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita is arguably coming off his best game since the 2023 Alamo Bowl victory over Oklahoma. Fifita completed 17-22 passes for 353 yards and five touchdowns through the air, as Arizona cruised to 48-3 victory over Weber State. While the competition is stiffer in Week 3, Fifita’s confidence and command of the offense bodes well, especially against a Kansas State defense that is allowing an average of 333.0 yards and 27.7 points per game.
It’s not just that Kansas State is allowing opponents to score nearly 30 points per game, it’s who it’s been against. The visiting Wildcats lost a 24-21 matchup against Iowa State, which looks to be one of the best teams in the Big 12, in Week 0 in Ireland, but has since gone 1-1, eking out a 38-35 win over FCS North Dakota, and a 24-21 home loss against Navy. Arizona likely won’t score 44.0 points, like it’s been averaging this season, but should be able to post some efficient offensive numbers against a defense that has underwhelmed up to this point.
Arizona also needs to limit its penalties on Friday night. The UA is averaging 9.0 penalties per game, tied for 8th-most in the nation. Arizona has been able to overcome those penalties against its previous opponents, but will need to play sharp to limit the opportunities it gives to Kansas State. Arizona will need to commit no more than five turnovers, with a max of two dead-ball turnovers, in order to be successful in the his game.
One other question heading into Friday night is the health of running back Kedrick Reescano. Reescano tallied 51 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries in the season-opener against Hawaii, but did not play against Weber State after suffering an apparent lower leg injury. His ability to get north and south, as well as his toughness as a blocker in the passing game, is a vital part of the UA’s three-headed monster at running back, as well as Seth Doege’s offensive scheme as a whole.
Defense:
Everything Kansas State does offensively runs through junior quarterback Avery Johnson. Johnson is a skilled passer and dynamic rusher, with elite power and physicality. While K-State did play a Week 0 game, he is currently second in the Big 12 and third in the nation in passing yards, with 763 yards through the air. He’s also accounted for six touchdowns through the air, as well as another 78 yards and score on the ground. Containing Johnson in the pocket and not letting him extend plays is key for Arizona if it wants to come out on top.
On the injury front, Arizona could be without defensive captain Tre Smith, who suffered an injury in the first half of the Weber State game and is a “game time decsion,” per defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales. For Kansas State, the big question remains, will dynamic running back Dylan Edwards return to the field after suffering an ankle injury on the opening touch of the Aer Lingus College Football Classic against Iowa State
With the injury to Smith, that containment needs to come from Arizona’s veterans and physical leaders on defense, including Genesis Smith and Dalton Johnson in the secondary, Chase Kennedy and Riley Wilson in the middle, and Dominic Lolesio up front.
By the numbers, Arizona is playing as well as any defense in the country right now. The Wildcats are one of two teams to not allow a touchdown this season, and are tied for fourth in points allowed, giving up just 4.5 points per game this season. The UA also leads the nation in turnover margin (+7). If Arizona can prevent Avery Johnson from extending plays with his legs, while forcing him to rush decisions and put balls in tight windows, the UA has a chance to continue its dominant run on defense to start the season.
Arizona needs to disrupt Avery Johnson and pressure him in the backfield. If the hometown Wildcats can force Johnson to put the ball on the turf with consistent and relentless pressure in the backfield, it should be a good night in Arizona Stadium for Brent Brennan’s squad.
Special Teams:
We can’t talk about special teams against Kansas State without acknowledging Dylan Edwards’ 71-yard punt return for a touchdown in 2024 in Manhattan, Kansas, right? Don’t count on that happening again, especially with Arizona’s improvement under new special teams coordinator Craig Naivar.
One area of concern for Arizona’s special teams game is the execution on punts. Michael Salgado-Medina only punted one time in the win over Weber State. While that is a good problem to have, Salgado-Medina had two punts in the first game that were nearly blocked, and the lack of live reps in Week 2 could lead to some choppy execution in the punt game this week.
Final Score Prediction:
In a cat fight between Arizona and Kansas State, it’s the hometown Wildcats that will come out on top. After a deflating loss to Army, Kansas State is hungry to get back in the win column, but the efficiency of Noah Fifita, coupled with the stinginess of the defense gives the home crowd the edge. Arizona defeats Kansas State 27-24, and heads into a bye-week and preparation for its Big 12 opener at Iowa State halfway to bowl game eligibility.