SAN DIEGO, CA – It’s been over a month since the Wildcats last took the field, when Arizona handled business with a 23-7 win in the Territorial Cup. Since then, Brent Brennan and Co. have been preparing for the postseason while enjoying bowl game festivities in San Diego, reassembling the front office, and gearing up for the transfer portal. As the Wildcats turn the page on 2025, and the 2025-26 season, check out this week’s Preview & Predictions ahead of the 46th annual Trust & Will Holiday Bowl between No. 17 Arizona and SMU.
Offense:
Arizona’s offense was rolling the last time it took the field. Against ASU in the Territorial Cup, the Wildcats were firing on all cylinders, finishing with 374 yards of total offense. Noah Fifita completed 28-45 passes for 286 yards and a touchdown, while running backs Ismail Mahdi and Kedrick Reescano added another 77 yards on the ground, as well as another score from Reescano.
The Wildcats may not move the ball as easily on Friday, in tandem due to the potentially soggy playing conditions, as well as the strength of the Mustangs’ defense. While the weather is forecasted to cooperate for the game, San Diego has been rainy for most of the week, creating slippery conditions on the field and for the ball. Arizona has ample experience playing in rain and through weather delays this season, but don’t be surprised if Seth Doege and Co. elect to keep the ball on the ground, especially in critical down and distance situations. With Kedrick Reescano healthy down the stretch of the season, he found the end zone five times in the last three games, making him a viable option for the Wildcats.
Where things could get interesting is the strength of SMU’s defense. With a PFF defensive grade of 90.7 on the season, SMU is one of the best defenses Arizona will face this year. Up front, the run defense has a grade of 92.9 on the season, the best of any grade SMU has on the analytics platform. The Ponies’ front seven are led by edge rushers Cameron Robertson (84.4 PFF) and Isaiah Smith (79.9 PFF). The two combined for 100 tackles, including 13.5 sacks, on the season and live in the backfield.
If Noah Fifita tries to move the ball through the air, Kris Hutson and Tre Spivey should be targeted heavily in this one. Finding the end zone seven times on just 23 touches this season, Spivey is a big-play waiting to happen. Meanwhile, Fifita and Hutson’s connection and chemistry has been on full display as of late. Over the last three games, Huston is averaging eight receptions for 117 yards, making him a go-to option, especially in crucial down and distance situations.
Fifita and the Wildcats will need to be weary of SMU defensive back Ahmaad Moses, who is a big part of why the Mustangs have the fifth-ranked defense in turnovers gained (27) this season. The safety finished the regular season with 91 total tackles, a sack, two pass deflections, five interceptions, including a pick-six, and two fumble recoveries.
Arizona should be able to move the ball, but between the wet weather and aggressive nature of SMU’s defense, will need to be as methodical as ever and take care of the football, especially in the red zone.
Defense:
The Wildcats have been stout this season, both in points and yardage allowed. Arizona has not allowed an opponent to throw for over 300 yards this season, and over the last five games, has only given up more than 20 points once. Danny Gonzales and Co. currently boast the No. 16 ranked team in total defense, but are in the top 25 in 11 different statistical categories, including No. 1 in turnover margin and No. 3 in turnovers gained. While it’s still unclear exactly who will suit up for Arizona on Friday, the Wildcats will be flying around the field, just like they’ve done all season.
The Mustangs have been a high-octane unit all season, averaging 419.0 yards and 32.9 points per game. In terms of balance, SMU averages 283.5 yards per game through the air and 135.5 yards per game on the ground.
As quarterback Kevin Jennings goes, so does the SMU offense. The fourth-year signal caller, who has spent his entire career as a Mustang, has thrown for 3,363 yards and 26 touchdowns this season, adding another four scores on the ground, including three in the last four games.
If the Ponies elect to keep it on the ground, running back TJ Harden will be the running back to watch. Harden leads the backfield with 747 yards and seven touchdowns, and has only fumbled once on the season.
When SMU elects to move the ball through the air, wide receiver Jordan Hudson and tight end Matthew Hibner will be two players to watch for. Hudson leads the Mustangs with 56 receptions for 749 yards and six touchdowns this season, while Hibner leads SMU’s tight end room with 351 yards and four scores.
The Wildcats will once again need to rely on the play of their stingy secondary, as well the front seven, including linebacker Max Harris and defensive linemen Tia Savea and Deshawn McKnight.
Special Teams:
This game could very well come down to special teams. Kicker Michael Salgado-Medina hasn’t exactly inspired confidence with his field goals this season, connecting on just 61.3% of his tries. But it has also been a month since Wildcat fans have seen him put the ball through the uprights – who knows, maybe “Money Mike” has been in the lab and has something up his sleeve.
On the other end, SMU placekicker Sam Keltner hasn’t been automatic either. The Mustangs’ kicker is 13-19 (68.4%) on the season, going 5-10 on kicks between 40-49 yards.
The big takeaways here: 1) Wildcat Nation should forever cherish Tyler Loop’s time in Tucson, and 2) the special teams game will come down to which team can avoid miscues.
Final Score Prediction:
This will be one of the toughest opponents Arizona faces all season, both on offense and on defense. Between the threat of inclement weather, a high-octane offense, and a ball-hawking defense, the Wildcats will have their paws full in the 46th annual Trust & Will Holiday Bowl. But Brent Brennan will have his team ready to go. Look for Arizona to defeat SMU 28-24 at Snapdragon Stadium on Friday, securing the fifth 10-win season in program history and second in the last three years.