Not only is Arizona gearing up for its first game away from Tucson this season, it’s preparing to face one of its toughest, if not the toughest, competition of the season. To make things more interesting, the Wildcats aren’t the only team coming off a bye-week, their opponents are too. Ahead of the primetime matchup between Arizona and No. 14 Iowa State, let’s break it all down in this week’s Preview & Predictions.
Offense:
Arizona will not have the same success moving and scoring the ball as it’s had throughout the earlier part of the season, which means limiting mistakes will be crucial. While it was defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales who said it this week, the message still applies to the offensive side of the ball, “The University of Arizona cannot hurt the University of Arizona.”
Fortunately for the offense, Noah Fifita has done a nice job protecting the football this season, with Arizona’s only offensive turnover coming on a trick-play by wide receiver Javin “Nunu” Whatley. In order to continue taking care of the football at the same pace, the game may come down to Fifita’s instincts and chemistry with his skill players, something offensive coordinator Seth Doege says excels at.
“That stuff is hard to evaluate on people – is evaluating guys’ ability to understand space, rhythm, timing, and just feel in general of people. But he’s got an elite skillset of that,” said Doege to media on Tuesday about quarterback Noah Fifita’s feel and understanding for the game.
The other way the Wildcats need to continue eliminating mistakes is by reducing penalties, especially late in drives. Arizona is tied for the 11th-most penalties in Division 1 this season, averaging 7.5 penalties per game. Brent Brennan says that was a key focus area for the the Cats during the bye-week, with offensive coordinator Seth Doege adding that Arizona is working on simulating late drive situations to help reduce penalties when fatigue sets in for the front five in the red zone.
Turning to the Cyclones physical defense, two players to look out for on Iowa State are nose tackle Domonique Orange and defensive back Jeremiah Cooper. The 6-foot-4, 325-pound Orange, who goes by the nickname “Big Citrus”, is a force in the backfield for opposing offenses. He leads all Iowa State interior defensive linemen with six pressures, and has tallied nine total tackles through four games, more than double the next-closest defensive lineman, per PFF.
Cooper is a ball-hawk in the backfield and is showing through four games that it is tough to move the ball against him. Opposing quarterbacks have targeted him a team-high 14 times, while Cooper has allowed just five receptions for 65 yards and one touchdown, while also taking the ball away once himself.
If Arizona can continue taking care of the football, reduce the self-inflicted mistakes, and capitalize on red zone opportunities with touchdowns instead of field goals, it has a chance to make some noise in Ames on Saturday night.
Defense:
Arizona needs to match Iowa State’s offensive physicality in order to remain competitive in Saturday’s tilt. The Cyclones utilize a number of 12- and 13-personnel sets, giving Matt Campbell and Co. extra size, strength, and blocking on the field. The Wildcats need to rely on the physicality of players like Genesis Smith and Dalton Johnson in the secondary, as well as linebacker Chase Kennedy, who continues to emerge as a bright spot for Danny Gonzales and the defensive staff since moving off the ball.
Tight ends Gabe Burkle and Benjamin Brahmer will be two players for Arizona to key in on on Saturday in Ames. Burkle has 10 receptions for 149 yards and touchdown on the season, while Brahmer poses a serious scoring threat, hauling in a 14 receptions for 109 yards and three touchdowns. Brahmer’s receptions and touchdowns are both team-highs. This is where Arizona’s physical secondary gives it some advantages, with Smith and Johnson being able to leverage their size and strength in the secondary to go head-to-head with Iowa State’s tight ends.
Under center, quarterback Rocco Becht has over 30 career starts under his belt, and his experience and poise in Matt Campbell’s system shows. Through four games this season, Becht has completed 65 of 100 passes for 860 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception through the air. Said differently, he is savvy, plays within the system, and does not make mistakes.
Between Bect’s command over the offense, the dynamic duo at tight end, and a dual-threat at running back with Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III, who Danny Gonzales said this week can both be 1,000-yard rushers this season, Arizona will have its hands full on Saturday.
Special Teams:
Special teams continues to raise some eyebrows for coordinator Craig Naivar and the Wildcats. Fortunately for Arizona, head coach Brent Brennan said the team had a “great week in the kicking game,” calling it a “huge focus” for the Cats.
Michael Salgado-Medina has been perfect on kicks under 40 yards, but 2-5 on field goal attempts longer than 40 yards, including a 62-yard miss in the Kansas State victory. The operation, including the snap and hold, continue to be shaky at times, and will be something to keep an eye on.
Also of interest will be Arizona’s punting operation. Salgado-Medina has had a punt or two that have been slow to get off in all three games this season, but his dropped punt that gave Kansas State instant red zone field position was brutal against Kansas State. Don’t be surprised if the coaching staff gives Aussie punter Isaac Lovison more and more looks as the season goes on.
For Iowa State, the Cyclones will be without redshirt freshman kicker Kyle Konrardy, who has been sensational to begin the season. Konrardy, who kicked a 63-yard field goal against South Dakota, struggled in Iowa State’s game against Arkansas State while dealing with the injury, and was officially ruled out in the Big 12’s injury report released on Wednesday evening. Chase Smith, who has been consistent, but does not have the same power and experience, will fill in for the injured Konrardy on Saturday.
Final Score Prediction:
In a primetime white out in Ames, Iowa on ESPN, the Arizona Wildcats, who will be wearing their “Redline” all red uniforms, will give the Iowa State Cyclones everything they can handle. A clean, turnover and penalty free offense, combined with a physical stout defense and improved special teams, will give the Cats a fighting chance. Against the experience, toughness, and consistency of Iowa State, it won’t be enough, with Arizona falling 28-24 in its Big 12 season-opener.